14 Jan 2011

Liberal Democrat lose Oldham, would have won with AV

Labour: 14,718 (42.1%)
Lib Dems: 11,160 (31.9%)
Conservatives: 4,481 (12.8%)
UKIP: 2,029 (5.8%)
BNP: 1,560 (4.5%)
Green Party: 530 (1.5%)
Monster Raving Loony Party: 145 (0.4%)
English Democrats: 144 (0.4%)
Pirate Party: 96 (0.2%)
Bus Pass Elvis Party: 67 (0.1%)

Pretty clear Lib Dems would have won with AV!

Modest Green Party vote but then we don't tend to do well at parliamentary by-elections.

2 comments:

Xhris said...

Is it quite that obvious? I'd have been inclined to say the majority might just about be big enough not to matter. Probably safest not to predict...
Remember that quite a few voters (especially the UKIP/BNP voters) wouldn't give a preference to either, especially in the early days of AV when people are still used to voting with an "X"!

Elliot Folan said...

Maybe: but remember that under the Alternative Vote minority parties won't see their vote squeezed as much.

But if they did win, it would be a far better win than Debbie Adams': she won with 58% of voters not supporting her.