2 Apr 2011
Liberal Democrat say vote Yes!
The Lib Dems will benefit from this system, and we will be stuck with a ConDem govt forever. Vote No, and it could finish off the Lib Dems, and perhaps the coalition govt too.
if the Alternative Vote referendum is passed into law, which is a big if at present, then this will help facilitate the Tory and Lib Dem strategy even more. That is, they will then be able to openly state that their voter’s second preference votes under AV, should be given to their coalition partner. Together with the government’s proposed boundary changes and the reduction of the number of constituencies (those that will disappear are all Labour held seats in inner cities) this could well keep the coalition in power for as long as Mubarak in Egypt.
Mike
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8 comments:
If AV loses don't expect Electoral Reform for 20 years. It will be seen as a no vote on Electoral Reform. If people vote for Tories and Lib Dems, that's a side of democracy that we'll just have to deal with.
Don't we accuse the other parties of being short-termist?
thanks Gordon, yes there is a debate to be had, damned if we do damned if we don't....
This is a particularly farfetched argument, and a weak one at that.
It firstly presupposes a number of things about all constituencies that aren't true. Not all fights are between Labour and the Tories, Lib Dems and Labour, and many will abandon the big three for their first preference in any case under AV as they are free to vote how they actually want to.
Secondly, it presupposes that Lib Dem voters will listen to their party, which even in terms of members, is likely to be completely wrong. As for all the kind of people that voted for them last time, even more unlikely.
This is hardly a reason to vote no. I mean, the BNP VOTE NO. OMG. FPTP MUST BENEFIT THE BNP.
I'm yet to see a convincing argument to not vote Yes, let alone vote No.
We won't be stuck with the Lib Dems if AV gets passed. No-one is going to vote for them ever again.
The Lib Dems have got a hard core vote, probably approaching 15%, Stuart. Also, with AV, Tories will 2nd pref them. or even 1st perf them in areas where the Tories have no chance.
If Clegg gets this though, he say to his discontented activists, it has made things easier for them to win seats. If AV is lost, so is Clegg and the LD's at least short term.
Hurrah, so we'll temporarily have a dig at the Lib Dems, all the while consigning electoral reform to history for a good few generations. That wouldn't be petty at all.
There is a hard core of Lib Dem support but it is only around 8/9% which you can observe in the polls when you look as the question, "Do you consider yourself..."
AV will protect some Lib Dem seats, but not as many as Clegg envisaged when he signed up to it.
The loss of support and trust of floating voters who went Clegg this time, will hurt them far more than the prospect of Tory 2nd preferences will benefit them.
The reason Cameron et al ran such a pisspoor campaign in Oldham East and Saddleworth (a 3 way marginal) was the very real prospect that with a real campaign the Tories would have overtaken the Lib Dems, a large number of Clegg's MPs would have taken fright of the implications and the whole coalition could have crashed early.
So, do we Vote No with the BNP?
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